Claim
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Coin flipPretty sureCertain
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You'll see ten claims. For each one, decide whether it's True or False — then set how sure you are.
You're scored on calibration, not just being right. Being 100% sure and wrong costs you far more than being 60% sure and wrong. If you don't know, slide toward "coin flip" and you'll barely lose anything.
The trick: be confident on the ones you know, and hedge on the ones you don't. That's how you beat a pure guesser.
Scoring uses the Brier score — the squared gap between your stated probability and what actually happened — mapped to 1000 points.